Category: Follies of the Human Condition

V is for Correlation

Correlation is not causation.

Who hasn’t heard that old chestnut? No one. How many people actually disagree? No one. Who actually uses the phrase “old chestnut”? No one. See the theme? No one. Wait, what? Stupid pattern loving human brain. Where was I? Argh, stupid forgetful human brain. No one.

Deep breath. Start again. While no one may believe that correlation is the same as causation, it is a tired line that is frequently used, not as an incisive critique of analytical errors in analysis, but as a casual dismissal of potentially inconvenient results without any serious consideration. Casual dismissal requires some style, a touch of pithiness. I find the related aphorism to be more aurally attractive:

Correlation does not imply causation.

It has more words, but I think it is something about the rhythm that I like. The accuracy of this phrase is, however, up for debate. And, it is debated, usually in a rather uneducated manner. The debate centers around the word “imply”. In its original, more mathematical usage, “does not imply” essentially had the same meaning as “is not”. In modern, common usage (eg, internet comment sections and dictionaries), “imply” has a much broader meaning more along the lines of “suggest”. This underscores a major problem with distinguishing correlation and causation – we use the same language and tools to discuss them both. Continue reading “V is for Correlation”

No really, talk to strangers

You don’t have to talk to everyone in the crowd but you should talk to at least a few people.

I’ve always been resistant to “networking”. Going up to random people I don’t know and talking myself up seemed ridiculous and weird. I avoided events that were specifically organized for that purpose. It’s not that I can’t talk with people I do, in fact, have a few friends. I just didn’t think the helpfulness of the exercise outweighed the intense awkwardness I would feel.

Turns out, I was wrong. I know, I know, everyone is always saying how important and easy networking is. I don’t think I’m the only person (definitely scientist) that had this same aversion. I hope sharing my (limited) experience will encourage those of you who still think networking is awkward and weird.

When I moved to DC and started my post-doc I was determined to put myself out there both to make new friends and to make job connections. I cold emailed a list of former NIH fellows to see if they would tell me about their current jobs. Most of them said yes, to my shock and  horror, because now I actually had to talk with these people. To my surprise, I actually enjoyed talking with them, I learned a great deal about my career options, and it wasn’t awkward at all. After getting my confidence up, I even attended a “networking happy hour”, the event I spent all of my previous life avoiding. Despite being terrified that I was the awkward girl in the room, I was able to chat with at least five different people. Of course it’s hard to walk up to people you don’t know, but at an event like that everyone is expecting it so it’s fine. I haven’t met my new BFF yet or gotten a connection to the perfect job but I am definitely more comfortable meeting new people.  The moral of this story is, just talk to people, it won’t be as terrible as you think. Along the way, you may make a new friend or meet someone who knows of the perfect job for you.

Sunday Science Poem: Chicago and the tensions of technological progress

I just got back from a weekend in Chicago, where, among other things, I stood on a three-inch thick glass ledge, suspended a quarter of a mile above Chicago’s streets. The Sears Tower* is a symbol of the optimistic view of technological progress that was still common in the mid-20th century – an era of outsized, iconic engineering projects. Chicago’s history reflects both this optimistic view, and more ambivalent attitudes towards technology and cities, captured in today’s Sunday Poem, Carl Sandburg’s 1904 “Chicago”.

To introduce this poem, I’ll pass the mic to William Cronon, who writes of what Chicago meant to the development of the American West:

“My contention is that no city played a more important role in shaping the landscape and economy of the midcontinent during the second half of the nineteenth century than Chicago… During the second half of the nineteenth century, the American landscape was transformed in ways that anticipated many of the environmental problems we face today: large-scale deforestation, threats of species extinction, unsustainable exploitation of natural resources, widespread destruction of habitat. It was during this period as well that much of the world we Americans now inhabit was created: the great cities that house so many of us, the remarkably fertile farmlands that feed us, the transportation linkages that tie our nation together, the market institutions that help define our relationships to each other, and the natural world that is our larger home.”1

Continue reading “Sunday Science Poem: Chicago and the tensions of technological progress”

Those poor bastards

 

Here are my thoughts on the Seahawks-Packers Hail Mary refereeing controversy (as if you really cared):

  • Live & at full speed, my first thought was “simultaneous possession”.
  • Former NFL cornerback Eric Davis makes a solid argument for “simultaneous possession” even after slow motion replay. The vagaries of “control” versus “catch” seem key here.
  • Has anyone in NFL history ever called offensive pass interference on a Hail Mary?
  • Home field advantage is mostly due to unconscious bias on part of referees responding to the angry mob screaming at them (ie, the crowd). No way that call was getting overturned in Seattle.
  • Referees are people, error prone humans, trying very hard to a very, very hard job well. The replacements are trying to do this with everyone hating them and expecting them to fail.
  •  Replacement referees aren’t incompetent. They are inexperienced at this level of play.
  • That inexperience could have important implications for player safety.
  • Replacements struggle to manage games because players/coaches don’t respect them, know them, or believe there are long-term consequences to their relationships.
  • The replacement referees aren’t responsible for the situation. The NFL and the regular referees are, but mostly the NFL.
  • It’s just football, folks.

 

Always leave a paper trail

Photo by Jeff Werner

Lab notebooks are one of the less glamorous parts of being a scientist. You must meticulously record what you do each day so that some day in the future, someone could read it and replicate that day’s work. Or when you realize you discovered something you would like to patent, you must prove that you indeed thought of it on a particular day.

Confession: I am particularly terrible at maintaining my lab notebook. Continue reading “Always leave a paper trail”