Math Madness #1: The Upset

It is conventional wisdom that every sensible bracket includes one and only one #12 seed upset over the #5 seed.  Is getting the #12 seed the basketball equivalent of a +8 sword with double damage against the undead?  If we look at the historical frequency of upsets in the round of 64 compared to the difference in seed[1], we see that the probability of upset decreases linearly as the difference in seed between the two teams increases (r2=0.96).

Continue reading “Math Madness #1: The Upset”

%d bloggers like this: