Last night, the University of Kentucky men’s basketball team defeated Kansas University 67-59 to claim the school’s 8th NCAA Championship, just as I predicted about two seconds before tip-off. The point difference with 1:32 left was just 5 points. So, we can debate whether it was a close contest overall, even though the point differential was much larger for most of the game. As far as predictions go, it appears that I am either marginally clever or lucky1.
How did the Kentucky Wildcats pull off the win?
Neither team played with particular efficiency on offense. Their shot selection distributions tended to look like those of average teams, especially in their choice to shoot two point jump shots. As we talked about last night, shooting two point jump shots is correlated with losing.
Kansas was able to come back, in part, because Kentucky’s offense seemed to become less efficient in the second half. Kentucky only attempted four layups in the second half.
To really understand these numbers, we also need to look at blocks and fouls. Kentucky set a championship game record with 11 blocks. Eight of those blocks occurred on layup attempts (27.6% of attempts). This dramatically reduced Kansas success rate on layups (37.9% v 55.6% for Kentucky) and they attempted fewer layups in the second half (1st: 17; 2nd: 12), though they were somewhat more successful in the second half (1st: 35.3%; 2nd: 41.7%). These blocks converted the most efficient shot from the field into a shot only marginally superior to the poisonous two point jump shot.
Kentucky also attempted (21 v 15) and made (15 v 10) more free throws than Kansas, accounting for 5 points of the final 9 point differential. Some of this difference in free throw shooting can be ascribed to Kansas fouling at the end of the game. Though the precise numbers are difficult to extract from the play-by-play transcript, my count has Kentucky earning 12-16 of their free throws from fouls on close range shots and Kansas 9-11 of theirs2. Despite fouling at the end of the game, Kansas only committed one more foul overall than Kentucky (16 v 15). Kentucky got more free throws per foul (1.31 v 1.00) and attempted more free throws per field goal attempt (0.375 v 0.242), suggesting that Kentucky was attacking the basket and getting to the line more effectively than Kansas – a highly efficient strategy.
As we also talked about last night, good defensive teams force their opponents to take inefficient shots. Both Kansas and Kentucky are very good defensive teams. Kansas was ranked 29th of 347 teams in the regular season in defensive efficiency, conceding only 1.06 points per possession. Kentucky, however, was the most efficient team in the land, conceding only 0.96 points per possession. The shot selections of their opponents reflect this prowess. Similarly, the offensive abilities of their championship game opponent can be seen.
In this case, it appears that defense did win a championship. The blocked layups by Anthony Davis were certainly instrumental to the win and his Most Outstanding Player award was well deserved. The perimeter defense of Kentucky also prevented Kansas from switching their strategy to effectively shooting three pointers at a higher rate.
NOTES
1. It is better to be lucky than good, for small values of N.
2. Kansas had two instances where a fouled shooter made the shot resulting in “and one” free throws. One was on a jump shot. One was on a layup. They made both.
The Finch and Pea 